The final matchday of ACC action is almost here, with all 12 teams playing their final regular season match on Friday night. There is still plenty to play for, with no seed yet to be confirmed. With six matches to be played and all 12 seeds to be determined, let’s take a deep dive into each matchup and break down the possible scenarios. By Brian Ludden
Before we get started, here’s a quick refresher on how the ACC Tournament works. All 12 teams make the tournament. The two division winners (Atlantic and Coastal) are automatically assigned to the 1 and 2 seed, and the division winner with the most points from conference matches will be the regular season champion and top overall seed. Seeds 3-12 are determined based on overall conference standings, regardless of division. The top four seeds get a first round bye and automatically advance to the quarterfinals. Seeds 5-12 will play first round matches next Wednesday. All matches are hosted by the higher seed, with the exception of the final which will be played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina. Should two teams be level on points, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head matchup. If the match finished as a draw, or the two teams didn’t play, the next tiebreaker is goal differential in conference matches.
Now let’s get into the fun stuff.
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame
7:00 p.m., ACC Network Extra
Current standing:
Pittsburgh – 7th place, 9 points
Notre Dame – 1st, 17 points
Best/worst possible seed:
Pittsburgh – Best: 5th, worst: 10th
Notre Dame – Best: 1st, worst: 2nd
Scenarios:
Pittsburgh:
- Clinch home field in round one with win or draw or Virginia Tech loss/draw + Louisville loss/draw
Notre Dame:
- Clinch top overall seed with win or draw or Wake Forest loss/draw or Wake Forest win but Notre Dame remain ahead on goal differential
Virginia Tech @ Duke
7:00 p.m., ACC Network Extra
Current standing:
Virginia Tech – 9th place, 7 points
Duke – 5th, 10 points
Best/worst possible seed:
Virginia Tech – Best: 5th, worst: 11th
Duke – Best: 4th, worst: 10th
Scenarios:
Virginia Tech:
- Clinch home field in round one with win
- Locked into road game in round one with loss or draw
Duke:
- Clinch first-round bye with win and Virginia loss
- Clinch home field in round one with win or draw or three of the following occur: Syracuse loss, Pittsburgh loss, North Carolina loss, Louisville loss/draw/win but Duke maintains GD advantage (currently Duke +1, Louisville -6)
- Will have first round road game with the following scenario: loss + three of the following occur: Syracuse win/draw, Pittsburgh win/draw, North Carolina win/draw, Louisville win and make up GD
Syracuse @ Boston College
7:00 p.m., ACC Network Extra
Current standing:
Syracuse – 6th place, 10 points
Boston College – 12th, 2 points
Best/worst possible seed:
Syracuse – Best: 3rd, worst: 10th
Boston College – Best: 11th, worst: 12th
Scenarios:
Syracuse:
- Clinch first-round bye with win and Duke loss/draw and Virginia loss and Syracuse pass Virginia on GD (currently Syracuse 0, Virginia +5)
- Clinch home field in round one with win or draw or two of the following occur: Pittsburgh loss/draw, North Carolina loss/draw, Virginia Tech loss/draw/win but Syracuse maintains GD (currently VT -5), Louisville loss/draw/win but Syracuse maintains GD (currently Louisville -6)
- Will have first round home game with the following scenario: loss + three of the following occur: Pittsburgh win, North Carolina win, Louisville win and make up GD, Virginia Tech win and make up GD
Boston College:
- Will be 11 seed with win and NC State loss
- Locked into 12 seed with loss or draw or NC State win/draw
Wake Forest @ Louisville
7:00 p.m., ACC Network Extra
Current standing:
Wake Forest – 2nd place, 14 points
Louisville – 10th, 7 points
Best/worst possible seed:
Wake Forest – Best: 1st, worst: 4th
Louisville – Best: 5th, worst: 10th
Scenarios:
Wake Forest:
- Clinch top overall seed with win and Notre Dame loss and Wake Forest makes up GD (currently Notre Dame +7, Wake Forest +3)
- Clinch Atlantic division title and 2 seed with win or Clemson loss/draw
Louisville:
- Clinch first round home game with win and two of the following thing occur: Virginia Tech loss/draw, North Carolina loss, Pittsburgh loss, Syracuse loss + Louisville makes up GD (currently Louisville -6, Syracuse 0), Duke loss + Louisville makes up GD (currently Duke +1)
- Will have first round road game with loss/draw
Clemson @ NC State
7:00 p.m., ACC Network Extra
Current standing:
Clemson – 3rd place, 13 points
NC State – 11th, 4 points
Best/worst possible seed:
Clemson – Best: 2nd, worst: 5th
NC State – Best: 10th, worst: 12th
Scenarios:
Clemson:
- Clinch first-round bye with win or draw or Syracuse loss/draw
- Clinch Atlantic division title and 2 seed with win and Wake Forest loss/draw
- Only way to finish 5th is a loss and Syracuse win and Virginia win/draw and Syracuse pass Clemson on GD (currently Clemson +11, Syracuse 0)
NC State:
- Can get 10 seed with win and Virginia Tech loss and NC State passes Virginia Tech on GD (currently NC State -9, VT -5)
- Locked into 11 seed with draw or Boston College loss/draw
- Will be 12 seed with loss and Boston College win
North Carolina @ Virginia
7:30 p.m., ACC Network
Current standing:
North Carolina – 8th place, 9 points
Virginia – 4th, 13 points
Best/worst possible seed:
North Carolina – Best: 5th, worst: 10th
Virginia – Best: 3rd, worst: 6th
Scenarios:
North Carolina:
- Clinch first round home game with win or draw + Virginia Tech win by at most five goals or Virginia Tech loss/draw or loss + Pittsburgh loss + North Carolina passes Pittsburgh on GD (currently NC +1, Pitt +3)
- Will have a first round road game with a loss and either Virginia Tech or Louisville win.
Virginia:
- Clinch first-round bye with win or draw or Duke loss/draw + Syracuse loss/draw/win by no more than 4 goals
- Will have a first round road game with a loss and Duke win or Syracuse win and make up GD (currently Virginia +5, Syracuse 0)
Predictions:
With all the possible scenarios sorted, here are my ACC final matchday predictions, based solely off my first reaction when I looked at each game.
Notre Dame 1, Pittsburgh 1
Duke 2, Virginia Tech 0
Syracuse 4, Boston College 0
Wake Forest 1, Louisville 1
Clemson 3, NC State 1
North Carolina 1, Virginia 1
Predicted final standings:
Based off my predicted results, here’s what the final table would look like:
*: indicates team that would get first-round bye
- *Notre Dame (18 points, Coastal division winners)
- *Clemson (16, Atlantic division winners)
- *Wake Forest (15)
- *Virginia (14)
- Duke (13, H2H tiebreaker over Syracuse)
- Syracuse (13)
- Pittsburgh (10, GD +3)
- North Carolina (10, GD +1)
- Louisville (8)
- Virginia Tech (7)
- NC State (4)
- Boston College (2)
Picture from ACC Conference
Brian Ludden is a contributing writer for College Soccer News. He can be reached at collegesoccernews@yahoo.com
